Thom Rainer is president and CEO of LifeWay Christian Resources. Author of 22 books, he is a frequent and insightful commentator on faith and culture. The first week of January of this year, Dr. Rainer wrote a provocative piece titled, "Fourteen predictions for American Churches for 2014." Here's his list:
Predicting is as much of an art as it is a
science. And if any prognosticator is honest, he or she will tell you that they
don’t always get it right. I know. I certainly don’t always get it right.
But I don’t pull my predictions out of thin
air. To the contrary, each of them has a reasonable explanation. For these
fourteen predictions, I gleaned from several sources:
·
Data-based research,
particularly LifeWay Research.
·
Trends that are
already underway and gaining momentum.
·
Conversations with
hundreds of church leaders.
·
My own experiences,
based on 25 years of consulting and research of American congregations.
This year I am adding a new feature, a
confidence factor. For example, if I said I had 100 percent confidence that a
prediction would become reality, it would mean that I have absolutely no doubt
about it. None of these predictions have a 100 percent confidence factor. But
none of them fall below 70 percent either. That means I have a fairly high
level of certainty about each of these trends.
The order of the trends is random. They are
not ranked in any particular priority. Today, I will share the first seven, and
then conclude with the final seven on Saturday.
1.
Increased
church acquisitions. Smaller churches will
seek to be acquired by larger churches in increasing numbers. One of the big
factors is simply personnel cost. Many smaller churches can no longer afford to
pay a pastor a salary and benefits, particularly health care benefits.
(75% confidence factor).
2.
Downsizing
of denominational structures. Many denominational structures are becoming smaller because
their churches are declining. Others are feeling economic pinches. This trend
of smaller and more efficient denominational structures at all levels will only
become more pervasive in 2014. (90%).
3.
Decline
in conversion growth. American
churches that grow are more likely to get their growth at the expense of other churches.
Evangelism is waning in many churches, and fewer non-believers are becoming
Christians. The negative reaction to programmatic evangelistic methods has
evolved into an overreaction. Too few churches emphasize personal and
church-based evangelism. (75%)
4.
More
megachurches. The data are clear
that there are more megachurches (average worship attendance of 2,000 or more)
today than a year ago. There is also little doubt the trend will continue. The
only uncertainty is whether or not the rate of growth of megachurches will
continue to climb. (85%)
5.
Greater
number of churches moving to a unified worship style. For years a noticeable trend was churches
offering different worship styles. The most common was the offering of two
services: traditional and contemporary, though the definitions of each were
elusive. In the next year we will we see a reversal of that trend, as many of
those same churches decide to move to one common worship style. (70%)
6.
Increased
emphasis on high-expectation church membership. For decades American congregations as a whole
lowered their expectations of church membership. One could be on a church roll
in many churches and not even attend worship services for years. We will see a
gradual reversal of that trend in 2014 as more churches move to
higher-expectation membership. (70%).
7.
Increased
challenges for congregations to build and acquire land due to restrictive
governmental policies. American
churches will experience more frustration with governmental authorities as they
seek to expand, build, and acquire land. Part of the reason will be due to the
authorities’ concern about traffic and congestions. Another part is the
underlying concern of losing a property tax base to a nonprofit organization.
In a few cases there will be outright animosity and prejudice against
Christians and churches. (80%)
8.
More
large churches will function like mini-denominations. These churches will have multiple locations.
They will have one senior or lead pastor, and several other campus pastors.
They are more likely to fund their own missions priorities, even if they are
also contributing to a denominational missions fund. Many of them will write
their own small group literature. Some will have their own church planting
strategies. (70% confidence factor)
9.
New
worship centers will be built smaller. There will be a greater emphasis on smaller gatherings more
frequently. This trend is being affected significantly by the preferences of
the Millennial generation (born 1980 to 2000). A related trend is that many
congregations will find ways to downsize their existing worship centers. (70%)
10. Increased emphasis on small groups. In 2014 we will see a decided shift from
nearly two decades of the “worship revolution” to the “small group revolution.”
Church leaders are rapidly discovering that members who connect to groups are
the most faithful members in the church by a myriad of metrics. That is not to
suggest that worship will become unimportant; it is to suggest that small
groups will have a greater emphasis than the previous quarter century. (75%)
11. Longer pastoral tenure. There will be incremental but steady growth in
the length of tenure of pastors at a given church. Part of the reason is the
influence of the Millennials who do not view larger churches as their next step
in ministry. Part of the reason is economic; moving in today’s economy is not
nearly as easy in pre-recession days. Hopefully, the main reason is a sense of
God’s call to stay rather than move. (75%)
12. Local churches increasing their roles as
ministry training leaders. The
role of ministry training in the past decades fell largely upon Bible colleges
and seminaries. More churches in 2014 will partner with those colleges and
seminaries to provide contextual training at a local church. (90%)
13. Church movement to the community. The posture of many American churches in the
most recent decades has been to find ways to get people in the community to
come to the church. That is shifting, perhaps dramatically. In more churches,
the congregation will move to the community. Instead of a philosophy of “y’all
come,” the dominant theme will be “we’ll go.” The congregants will be a more
powerful presence in the community they serve, thus ministering to,
influencing, and reaching more people with the gospel. (80%)
14. More multiple teaching/preaching pastors. In larger churches, there has been a decided
trend toward having more than one teaching and preaching pastor. Now the trend
is taking place in smaller churches. We will see more churches with attendance
under 200, even some under 100, with more than one teaching/preaching pastor.
Of course, not all of them will be full-time vocationally at the church, so
there will be more bi-vocational pastors whose role is to be a second or even
third pastor in these smaller churches. (85%)
These fourteen predictions are not infallible.
But there does seem to be growing evidence that most, if not all of them, will
become a reality in 2014.
Have you prayed for a great moral and spiritual renewal
in your heart and country today?
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